Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The mean number of everyday murders each month in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new government statistics. However, public safety specialists have advised that homicide numbers might not indicate enhanced national stability.

Notable Drop in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the presidency in September of last year. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably important,” the President said, adding that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than the US. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President said: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between various departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it may hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains beset by high violence, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.