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Just two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the team's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.

According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.

His opener came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.