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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles emit nearly five times greater global warming pollution than official data indicate, according to a recent analysis.

Growing Discrepancy Between Official and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit only one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on research carried out by a non-profit group. This differs sharply with lab tests, which suggested a 75% reduction in emissions.

Analysts examined information from onboard fuel consumption meters of 800,000 cars registered in Europe from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official estimates, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are increasing, while official emissions are decreasing,” stated a lead analyst involved in the report. “That discrepancy is widening and poses a serious issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as much as petrol cars.”

Key Factors Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of kilometers driven in battery mode relative to overall mileage. They found that only a quarter of travel was completed in electric mode, while lab estimates suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in EV mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than official estimates. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful enough to function alone, resulting to combustion motors burning gasoline for nearly a third of the distance completed in electric mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output allowed four large automaker groups to escape more than €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing compliance with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs would spend approximately €500 more per year in running expenses than would be assumed under laboratory conditions.

“The strong claims that automakers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are clearly way off the mark,” commented a transport analyst. “Consumers are being misled into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are little better than standard gas and diesel cars in terms of energy use, CO₂ production, and running expenses.”

Political Debate and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought back into political discussions as automakers have lobbied the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced intense lobbying from the automotive sector and opposition from member states with significant automotive industries.

Some senior officials have suggested PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” option to include in the legislation.

An independent energy economics expert, who was not involved with the study, described the report a “very useful addition” after years in which segments of the car industry argued there was too little information to accurately evaluate real-world emissions.

“These findings demonstrate, without question, that the gap in official and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is significantly larger than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” the expert said. “Any policy adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost caution and considering that data.”