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"I will be positioned in the same seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, joking that if the conversation went well, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in the coming year.

There is never any break for those in the top job. In the hour before our chat started, Starmer had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to work out what on earth had happened in Venezuela, where his close political chum, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When the discussion, which was far more extended than typical, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year starts, Starmer appears to have had a degree of a refresh. Maybe even just some downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This seemed to have left him in a more positive mood than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a terrible annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they think his fortunes are poised to get better?

Internal Doubts

The grisly reality for the prime minister is that numerous of his fellow MPs think he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would sooner take a risk and get him out in 2026.

However Sir Keir was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "assessed at the poll", arguing no one would remove his electoral mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to change leader.

"We are in the struggle of our lifetime and I plan to be at the forefront," he said.

The Spring Test

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged long before then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to argue, maybe excessively, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – up to a point. But although he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, should a his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to explain his low poll ratings by saying the public was reasonably eager for things to change. He tried to persuade me, and the public, that 2026 would be different.

The economy would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the administration put in place during their initial choppy year began to take effect.

• He vowed to close asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, although he did not set a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first time that Western partners were now considering how to integrate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.

His central point is that this year the country will "turn the corner".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have communicated with greater vigour than observed from him for a some time – calmer, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering calls from many directions for a more decisive strategy, with greater political direction, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were well-known ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, should he consider a different script?

No government, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because governing is hard, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when past remarks he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the process" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting obvious political perils as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president entails a new complication after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be content with such action seems implausible.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "longtime proponent of international law" but we "just haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Opponents wanted him to denounce it before the interview. And the administration is likely to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also consistently been growing tension in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the results of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's heading in that direction, but his new specific commitment to move closer with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European market – will likely elicit accusations that he is reneging on his vow never to try to overturn the choices that stemmed from Brexit.

A commitment to align with more of the single market will delight many on his side of the party, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to